Summer Chimp

(delayed post, from July 21st 2010)

It is very hot and humid in Shizuoka at the moment; the season of eternal perspiration where I guzzle what seems like over 3 litres of fluids each day. (Nothing makes fruit juice and milk taste better than a run in the summer.)

Have just read an excellent book called "Catching Fire" by Richard Wrangham on his theory that cooking was the prime evolutionary catalyst for many adaptations that make us human; from physically smaller guts and jaws to pair-bonding (marriage) arrangements, the sexual division of labour and cooperation. I'm totally sold on his argument, and only wish he'd come up with it when I was studying anthropology because it is such a simple but wonderful idea that fits so much better than the "compulsive communicator" or "aquatic ape" hypotheses I had to learn. It's very easy to read with lots of fascinating anecdotes, you should pick it up!

On Sunday and Monday we went for a BBQ/camp-in-a-hut trip near lake Yamanaka (one of Fuji's five lakes) with some other couples (Nami's Uni friends). We had a good time cooking and drinking. The weekend provided me with some handy anthropological field study as I could observe human behaviour around the campfire. I bought a small Primus gas stove with which I intend to make "Himalayan Sherpa Tea" (no kidding, that's the brand name) at the top of Mt. Fuji in a couple of weeks, and tested it out when camping, but ended up boiling water for coffee for ten people. It works a treat though.

On the second day of the camp, before we (I) drove home, Nami had organised for everyone to do some crafts, most did pottery. With the anthropology book in hand, I set out to make a chimp/proto-human mug...

Now I think about it, kind of looks like the early humans from "2001"... hmm! I could choose between a white glaze or none. I went with none and hope to scratch and shape him a bit more when he arrives fired. Suggestions for a name welcome!

Yukio Hatoyama, the Prime Minister who wasn't a politician

This week, Yukio Hatoyama resigned and took Ozawa with him making him the latest in a string of Prime Ministers that couldn't survive more than a year since Koizumi privatised the largest savings fund in the world (Japan Postal Savings) and pushed away from China with repeated visits to Yasukuni Shrine. He was very popular in the States.

Hatoyama, not so much. He was so promising; the massive swing election last year overthrew 50 years of almost uninterrupted Liberal Democratic Party of Washington sock-puppetry, he vowed to sweep out corruption and bureaucracy and take a more Asian-centric stance to foreign policy which included the relocation of American bases on Okinawa. But poor Hatoyama moved too fast, and within months the Americans were complaining of a breakdown in communication (read: all their LDP cronies and bureaucrats were no longer in the loop).

Soon after the election, Okinawa Base rumblings came from the US.

August 2009 - "Unfortunate"

September 2009 - "Won't dictate to Japan"

October 2009 - "Japan urged"

November 2009 - "USA warns Japan"

Late December 2009 - "US concerned about Hatoyama"

Back in October, the US started stinging Japanese exports with a Toyota "acceleration problem" that turned out to be people jamming their mats to the pedals. The president of Toyota was made to answer pointless, inarticulate questions at a congressional hearing...

Honda too was hit by a recall.

And Hatoyama was criticised for accepting money from his mum and dead people.

Then North Korea apparently sunk a South Korean Navy vessel. Only China didn't quite believe the story, but it was reported endlessly on Japanese news. A reporter for Russia Today said exactly what I was thinking on this, but much more eloquently.

(The US (and S.Korea?) staged a false-flag attack to put pressure on Japan to maintain their presence in Okinawa and the region)

And Hatoyama collapsed, announcing the base will only move to another part of Okinawa as per a 2006 agreement that was already in place. The Social Democratic Party, in coalition with Hatoyama's DPJ, split over this backdown. Next month, upper house elections begin and with Hatoyama's approval rating supposedly down from 70% to 20%, a quick leader swap was in order for the DPJ to minimise the damage from trying to screw with America.

Now I like to draw parallels with fiction, and the Japanese made animation Ghost in the Shell (2nd series) covers an almost identical narrative. The plot goes, following non-nuclear World War III and the 2nd Vietnam war, Japan has a massive population of Asian refugees that are causing civil unrest. The crime of the series is perpetrated by a member of the Cabinet Intelligence Serivce, Gouda, who orchestrates a series of proxy and false-flag attacks to incite a refugee uprising that has supposedly acquired a Russian nuclear bomb. Actually, they didn't, but in the ensuing conflict between refugees and Japan's Self Defence Force Gouda arranges, via the CIA, for the American Empire to launch a nuke from a sub to detonate over the refugee's city, thus the authorities can claim they mishandled the bomb and set it off themselves (a false-flag attack), thereby resolving the issue and pushing Japan into a more economic and militarily subservient position with the American Empire. The heroes of the story, Public Security Section 9, prevent the sub's nuclear attack, thereby saving the refugees, and kill Gouda before he can defect to the US.

In reality, the US is, I think, remarkable in its pragmatic willingness to actively create situations, to create news, to create war in order to control events, manipulate players and provide a context for its own desired course of action. Most countries can't hold a candle to the kind of resources the US puts into controlling their governments, and Hatoyama has learned this the hard way by being attacked from within and without, militarily and economically and politically; arguably all orchestrated at some level by the US. The poor chap is now in a situation where his choices have indirectly lead to economic damage to Japan's core industries, unemployment, military action and loss of life, the dissolution of his ruling coalition and his own resignation. If the effects weren't so bad, one might call his stand against America admirable, but really it was just terribly ill conceived.

Going back to the Ghost in the Shell story, one might be tempted to say that Japan needs a better intelligence agency. One that doesn't have 75% of its staff come from other countries. If they had an organisation like Section 9, or better press control, they might have been able to minimise the US/South Korean scaremongering, and ultimately save Hatoyama, perhaps? But this is reactionary, and it wouldn't dramatically change the political landscape.

Japan needs to improve its bureaucracy. From the drones sitting doing nothing at city hall, the five people it took to issue me with a new bank book, to ludicrous nepotism and bribery at the top levels of government, there needs to be the kind of reform Hatoyama promised (not least for the economic waste). And I think this can only happen if they establish a strong multi-party democratic system rather than the virtual oligarchy that has just lost power and seems to be rather quickly clawing its way back. Specialization breeds weakness that can be controlled, diversification creates flexibility and resilience. One party systems can be controlled as easily from within the nation as from without, but always become oppressive when threatened. So...

The DPJ needs to make itself into a viable second leadership, not an opposition, and this means playing along with America, at least for the time being. Hatoyama has blown his chance, and possibly that of the DPJ in this term if they can't secure a majority in the upper house elections.

Here is the next chap, Naoto Kan. I hope he has more political skill and a more realistic vision of Japan and its place between America and China. And that he can stay in power for longer than it takes for a dried senbei to go bad.

Here are the three musketeers of the DPJ; Hatoyama, Ozawa and Kan. Mr. Kan is the last one standing...

Rageh

Watched a rather good documentary Rageh Omaar did for BBC4 on life in Iran today...

Rageh inside Iran

And a more historical perspective on Iran that was very interesting, relevant, and though a year or so old, slightly prophetic...

Iran is not the problem

Though as it turned out, apparently Rageh wasn't too chuffed at the BBC and jumped ship to Al Jazeera, and has a new show, "The Rageh Omaar Report", kind of Rageh Unleashed, where he can go globe trotting and interviewing people on topics to his interest. Which interests me immensely.

Update: Here he is...

David Erchamion: The One Handed

So we went to Mt. Fuji yesterday with friends to go sledging or skating, the latter as it turned out, and I injured myself in true You've been framed! style. Walking to the small skate rink, I suggested we walked down a hill, not the path. Then due to some imbecilic precociousness, and perhaps a nostalgia for childhood wrongfootings, I decided to walk down an icy patch on the hill. Feet came out, arms flailed and I landed on my back. Everything would have been wonderfully comic, though it still is I guess, but when I tried to break my fall with my hand, that slipped too, naturally, and twisted my arm in some impossible contortion.

Suffered relatively silently the rest of the day, and refused to go to the hospital since I reasoned that humans wouldn't have gone to hospitals for millions of years before they were invented. But then I guess humans generally have a more healthy fear of ice than me, as it turned out. I partly rationalise my fall as a result of having suffered no injury within memory; so I thought I was some kind of indestructible Achilles type. Speaking of which, I believe I did some decent ligament and/or tendon damage to my left elbow. Or maybe I actually am indestructible, and it's just my left elbow that is weak? The "David Elbow", one's weakness due to inane stupidity.

After not much sleep, Mariko took me to a doctor this morning. Took a couple of X-rays. He gandered at them for a while and made lots of non-committal Japanese mumblings... not broken as I thought (and hoped) but didn't even suggest ligament injury. Gave me a cold compress (though I really dislike symptomatic treatments), a sling (though I was doing fine with one of Nami's scarves) and some painkillers (see symptomatic treatment dislike). But at least probably not broken, which was the reassurance I was looking for!

Meantime I am one handed like the hero Beren...

A striking likeness

Though temporarily so. And kind of 1.1 handed, the left hand serves as an immobile T-Rex claw for doing light holding work. Meantime, I spent all day watching excellent YouTube videos about the Sumerians...

and good old American economics...

And sleeping...

Driving Range

So we went to a driving range with a friend the other week. It was nice to play a "real" game for once, and I did pretty decently if I do say so myself (games are basically all the same, if you're good at Mario the basic skill-sets transfer easily to club and contact sports). My only prior experience with a club, except for the video game variety that is usually used for less than wholesome purposes, was the pitch-and-putt at Cambridge that was usually undertaken after some beers.

As you'd expect, the Japanese affair is well organised and pretty cool; this was very 1980's Japan in my opinion, which is most definitely a good thing. Think business men going there after work, drinking coffee and smoking - very cool.

The Nami also took to the clubs for the first time. Here is a fair representation of her skill...

Hehe, no she did actually get better! When we finally get a new car, this is something I'll be keen to do more often.

AI Interest

So pretty much my only hobby is studying and trying to work out a description of the human mind for building a Synthetic Intelligence (I use this term instead of "Artificial Intelligence", or AI, because who wants to be called "artificial"?). I have this site that has been up for over a year now, describing an as of yet, on paper, unfinished model. Now whilst I get dejected from time to time by the absence of any intelligent conversation I can have on the subject with other people (most people on the internet seem to think the mind is something ethereal), I keep track of visits to my site using Google Analytics, which provides some amusement, and occasionally spurs me on to do more work when I realise some people are actually reading it!

Analytics is a Java based tracker, like a cookie system I gather but it doesn't record everything 100%. However, like everything else Google, it's free and well presented. So I had a look at the data spread over the past year, and Analytics puts it into this neat graphical representation based on the region/city from where the traffic to the site came from...

Now of course there will be a slight bias towards English speaking countries because the site itself is written in English, but Anglais is also the lingua Franca of science, so there is still traffic coming from all over the world (eg. Philippines, Brazil, China, Egypt, Iran). From a technological point of view, the most interesting, and perhaps only point that can be taken from this, is the relatively large amount of traffic that comes from the USA.

City view shows more of a balance between the US and Europe as a whole (Leipzig is number one).

Other minor factors aside, such as the US having a greater number of internet users than other countries, it is easy and interesting to conclude that SI research is being pursued far more aggressively in the US than in other countries. For my site at least, the traffic from the US is four times next place, the UK, and five times Germany.

So what I'm thinking about this morning, is "why?" This site shows the percentage of GDP put into research by a few developed countries, most being around 2-3%. The US is second to Japan, but even adjusting that graph by accounting for actual GDP, the numbers alone sound a bit off the ball. The US is obviously, technologically ahead of every other country, if not publically by far, then at least by several steps. Their space programs alone demonstrate this; in the process of retiring the Shuttle, the most used and most successful space transportation vehicle to date, developing new systems (the Orion rockets), not to mention the NIF (a practical fusion reactor) and military technology which is sometimes (often?) researched and produced off the books. On this note, the US military has shown an interest in developing SI systems, most notably and publically in the DARPA Grand Challenge, where they encourage teams to build driver-less cars. Now the "why?" of all aforementioned research lies primarily in two reasons; technological power translates to both military and economic power, and this is the raison d'etre for US research. Does SI fit into this plan? Very much so!

If machines can be made sentient, then simply because they can be constructed by design means they can be improved, and it is a widely held and old concept (from science fiction) that once one SI is built, that SI will then help design new SIs, and the feedback will create exponentially smarter SIs until a technological and logical limit is reached. Basically, they will become far, far smarter than humans.

Leaving aside what "smart" means (too complex to go into here!) the question then becomes, where can such a being fit into our society? One answer is as an advisor. Kind of like Skynet from the Terminator story, SI advisors will find good homes as economic, political and military strategists. Other, less encouraging, uses of such a technology would include using sub-sentient drones (though more advanced than current military drones, perhaps) for combat.

I, however, would hope for a more optimistic future with SIs, but one that would require massive social and legal transformation. Essentially, laws will have to be rewritten to not speak of "humans" or "adults" but of sentients, being self-aware becomes the defining factor of inclusion within society, making special cases for pre-sentient or mentally damaged individuals. Perhaps then, after social "adjustment", SIs might find homes as citizens. Would you take a machine as a friend?

Just such a situation is a long way off, and perhaps shall follow private and military use, but whatever the ultimate fate of SIs is to be, for the moment it seems to me that the US is more dedicated to SI research than any other country, and perhaps will get there first. What one can make of this is difficult to say, but as a technology it would be akin to the nuclear bomb and space flight; getting there first doesn't stop others getting there (indeed, once it's done, others will try to get there as quick as possible!) but it will probably give you an advantage and that seems to be more than enough as a geopolitical goal.

But then, not everyone is motivated by such banal things as "advantage".

Tentless camping

Last month Nami and I went camping with some friends, we went to a small but popular place called Kobuchizawa, near mount Yatsugatake which we passed earlier this year going to Karuizawa...

View Larger Map

The place was called Yatsugatake Auto-camp, and was run by a very friendly and helpful couple. Lots were surrounded by trees, some were for tents and others, like ours, had small wooden huts which the Japanese, ever optimistic, call "cabins". Shed is a more accurate description in my opinion. It was really nice to escape the humidity of Shizuoka, which is only now, in October, beginning to give way and approach more civilized levels. We stayed two nights, and enjoyed our time walking around the town, playing Uno, going to a hot spring, playing badminton, going to a craft center and playing more Uno.

More camping up for this week... we are going to an outdoor festival (not the indoor kind) called Asagiri Jam, and will be camping on Saturday night. Not sure it will be my thing, so will take backup-books and a chair just in case.